Guest Preview: Notre Dame @ Stanford

In this week's special Thanksgiving Guest Preview, Irish Creed writer IrishGirl10 breaks down the matchup between #6 Stanford and 

#22 Notre Dame:

IrishGirl10's Game Preview:

In the words of quarterback Tommy Rees, last Saturday’s win over the Eagles of Boston College “wasn't pretty, it wasn't at times the most successful offense we have had, obviously, but anytime you can get a win this late in November you'll take it.”  Considering I would like to forget everything that happened after that beautiful 80-yard opening drive, capped off with a 26-yard scoring rush by Jonas Gray, I will wholeheartedly agree with him and move on.  And thus, with the defeat of BC officially in the books, these Irish eyes will turn to the last game of the season and, undoubtedly, the toughest one yet: Stanford.

Going into Saturday, the Cardinal will hold a #6 BCS ranking and a 10-1 record – their only loss at the hands of Oregon.  Notre Dame is sitting at #22 and 8-3.  The Irish have played 3 ranked teams this year.  Though they pulled out a win over Michigan State (#14), they had devastating losses to Michigan (#15) and USC (BCS ineligible, but currently #10 by AP).   Arguably USC is the best team the Irish have faced this season, and they walked away with a loss.  Stanford, on the other hand, brought the Trojans to triple-overtime and managed to scrape out a win.   However, there is more to this upcoming face-off than rankings and records – let’s break it down:

Offense:

For Stanford, this can be summed up in two words: Andrew Luck.  Back for another season after rumors of a move to the NFL, Luck dominates every field he steps onto – boasting 2,937 yards and 31 touchdowns thus far this year.  Although his Heisman candidacy has recently found itself on unsteady ground, there are many who believe he’s a shoe-in for the award; not to mention he’s already been flagged as the likely first overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft.  Luck may be known for his arm, but Stanford’s rushing attack is equally potent – bolstered by a strong offensive line featuring left tackle Jonathan Martin and right guard David DeCastro.  This all amounts to an offense that has scored at least 30 points in each game this year – topping out at 65.  Notre Dame’s offense, conversely, has struggled to find consistency (apart from its turnovers).  In terms of passing, quarterback Tommy Rees has some phenomenal options: Tyler Eifert, TJ Jones, Theo Riddick (in question due to a hamstring injury), Robby Toma, and, of course, Michael Floyd.  Lots of options, however, have often resulted in lots of interceptions – especially when the ball is forced to Michael Floyd, who is rarely, if ever, found in single coverage.  The running game, initially a victim of turnovers this season, has come to find steady success in the hands of Jonas Gray and Cierre Wood.  Unfortunately for the Irish, Gray is out for the season after suffering a torn ACL last week against Boston College, which effectively halves the rush options and shifts a greater share of the scoring burden onto a rocky pass game.

Advantage: Stanford.

Defense:

Among the better offensive teams they’ve seen this season, the Stanford defense has given up an average of 40 points (ND’s offense averages 32).  They have also been known to struggle significantly against the pass - ranking #78 overall in yards allowed per game and tallying only 4 interceptions, both of which will come in handy should the Irish find themselves unable to fill the shoes of Jonas Gray.  Their star linebacker Shane Skov (Freshman All-American 2009) is out with an injury, leaving the Cardinal with lineman and 5th year senior Matthew Masifilio as the lone returning starter.  Overall, the Cardinal defense is nowhere near the level of its stellar offense.  In a stark contrast, the effort of the Irish defense has often directly carried its team to a win – especially when the offense has struggled to put points on the board.  They have allowed an average of only 20 points per game this season and in their last four games they’ve managed to keep three of their opponents under this mark.  They are in the top thirty for both scoring defense and total defense and have a total of 7 interceptions for 152 yards.  Led by Manti Te’o and team captain Harrison Smith, the Irish defense is not to be taken lightly.

Advantage: Notre Dame

With a BCS Berth, Pac-12 Championship, and potential Heisman Trophy on the line, Andrew Luck and the Cardinal won’t go down easy.  They are an elite team and on a level above any of the opponents the Irish have faced thus far.  In the past two seasons, however, the Irish have caused Luck to experience his lowest passer rating (119.7), been one of only two teams to force more than 1 interception, and held Luck to under 60% completion.  In sum, Saturday is going to be a battle determined by Cardinal offense and Irish defense.  With an inspired offensive performance and consistent defense, Notre Dame has the potential to squash Cardinal dreams and regain the respect and reputation it deserves as a program.

Fightin' Irish seniors must rise above
 in their last regular season game.

TheNDleprechaun's Score Prediction:  

While Andrew Luck is undoubtedly the best all-around player the Fightin' Irish will have faced thus far, it will take more than one player to beat the Boys in Blue & Gold.  If the beasts along Diaco's defensive front can control the line of scrimmage and shut down the Cardinal running game, then we just may have a chance to throw Luck off his game with a fierce pass rush on 3rd and long situations.  Fittingly, the contest should come down to whether our three leaders (Smith, Te'o, Floyd) can rise above the rest in what will probably be the last regular season game any of them ever play for Notre Dame.  If Smith and Te'o can neutralize Luck, and Floyd can take control of the game every time he steps on the field similar to the way Golden Tate did last time Notre Dame played at Stanford, we just may be able to keep Kelly unbeaten in the month of November.

In the end, Luck's Cardinal falls prey to the Luck of the Irish: 34-30.

Hopefully the Leprechaun can pump out 34 handstand pushups this year.

Sun Bowl Awards

The 2010 Fighting Irish celebrate after defeating Miami 33-17
 in the Hyundai Sun Bowl (Louis Nix throws down an upside-down "U")

The Fighting Irish finished off 2010 with a 33-17 win over the Miami Hurricanes in the Hyundai Sun Bowl, completing a four-game winning streak during which they outscored opponents 108-39.  The offense jumped out to an early lead, and the defense completely shut down Miami's passing game en route to a dominating performance.

Top-Ten most valuable influences on the game:

1.  Brian Kelly –  It was evident from the outset that Kelly had his team motivated, focused, and ready to play despite the many distractions that go along with playing in a bowl game.  He obviously took advantage of the 15 bonus practices between the win over U$C and the Sun Bowl, coming up with a crisp game plan that utilized Notre Dame's strengths and took advantage of Miami's weaknesses perfectly.  It all starts at the top, and due to Kelly's coaching the Fighting Irish were worlds apart from a sloppy and flat Miami team who may have treated their trip to El Paso as nothing more than a vacation.  Unfortunately for them, their holiday was cut short with a rude awakening due to the lethal combination of sub-40 degree weather and an opponent that wanted it much more than they did.

2.  Bob Diaco –  Our defensive coordinator took a tremendous amount of heat after an embarrassing defensive performance against Navy followed by a loss to Tulsa.  Since then, he has engineered a total transformation by forming a defense that has been truly lights-out.  The trend began against the high-powered Utah offense, which could not find the endzone in Notre Dame Stadium, and it continued when U$C could not establish a run game on senior night in the Coliseum.  In the Sun Bowl, Miami's ground attack never had a chance to get going and Diaco's defensive scheme tormented the Hurricane quarterbacks from the outset.  For the first time in a while, defense has become a strength at Notre Dame thanks to Diaco.

3.  Tommy Rees – Kelly's choice for the game ball, the now 4-0 signal caller looked like anything but a true freshman against Miami.  He showed poise in the pocket as he methodically and systematically picked apart a defense that ranked #2 in pass efficiency during the regular season.  Not only did he connect on accurate throws all game long, but he easily recognized and exploited the mismatches that his receivers created.  Most importantly, he played within himself while executing Kelly's game plan brilliantly.

4.  Michael Floyd - Nobody was going to stop Mike from playing like Mike in what may turn out to be his last game for the Fighting Irish.  The superstar receiver broke the all-time record for touchdown receptions in the first quarter, going on to finish the game with 6 catches for 109 yards with 2 scores.  He earned the MVP accolades he was awarded at the end of the game by imposing his will on Miami's secondary, just as he did against U$C and throughout his career at Notre Dame.  He will be sorely missed if he does end up heading to the NFL in 2011, but his leadership and many clutch performances will not be forgotten.

5.  Harrison Smith – Harry became the definition of ball-hawk against Miami, flying all over the field on his way to 7 tackles and 3 interceptions.  Every time Miami looked like they might get a drive started while the game was still within reach, he snatched away all hope by coming up with a big play.  More than once, he came out of absolutely nowhere to jump a route and rip the ball away from a receiver.  Not only did he force Harris our of the game after picking him off for the second time, but he added one against Morris as well.  Needless to say, both quarterbacks are probably still having nightmares about #22.

6.  Theo Riddick – The Chronicles of Riddick continued as Theo returned to his true form by making Riddick-ulous plays in various roles within the Fighting Irish offense.  He helped establish the running game by presenting a dangerous threat every time he lined up in the wild-cat (or Leprechaun, as Kelly calls it) formation, and he showed off his natural ability by gaining positive yardage several times even when plays broke down.  Hopefully his Sun Bowl performance was just a glimpse of future greatness as Kelly continues to come up with creative ways to get him the ball.

7.  Robert Hughes – The only downside to Hughes' recent explosion is that it took this long for him to realize his full potential.  The big bruiser ran with authority in the Sun Bowl, leaving bruised and battered Hurricanes in his path.  His power provided the perfect compliment to Cierre Wood's speed and Theo Riddick's moves, and he even showed off some impressive speed when he caught up to his own fumble along the sideline.

8.  The Irish O-line: Zack Martin, Chris Stewart, Braxston Cave, Trevor Robinson, and Taylor Dever - These beasts gave Rees more than enough time to shred Miami's secondary, and they opened up holes for Hughes, Wood, and Riddick early and often against a defense that was ranked #1 in tackles-for-loss during the regular season.  Most importantly, they set the tone early on by smashing the Hurricane defense in the mouth and letting everyone know that the Fighting Irish came to play.

9.  David Ruffer – Can everyone please beg Brian Kelly to give this kid a scholarship?  (Ask him via twitter!)  Even though he had his first miss of the season, he accounted for 12 points, including an impressive 50 yarder that effectively put the game out of reach before halftime.  Notre Dame hasn't had a consistent kicker in years, and Mr. Dependable continued to prove himself worthy of a scholly with this latest performance.

10.  El Paso, Texas – The hometown crowd sent a volley cheer on high when the Fighting Irish took the field, and they continued to provide Notre Dame with the clear home-field advantage throughout the contest.  The 37 degree temperature coupled with a dusting of snow didn’t hurt either.  Even though the Miami quarterbacks probably won’t blame all those interceptions on their ridiculous neck-warmers (shouldn't the Convicts be well accustomed to wearing ski-masks?!) their discomfort was evident.  While almost all of the men from South Bend went sleeveless, the boys from South Beach looked eager to pack their bags and head back to warmer weather (ironically, chants of "Warm up the bus!" could be heard before the first half even ended).